The pressure of the hottest production expansion f

2022-07-23
  • Detail

The pressure of production expansion forced Dalian plastics to fall by 3%

out of concern about the substantial increase in future supply, Dalian plastics futures plunged by more than 3% yesterday, breaking through the 60 day moving average support. Analysts said that the continued high price in will cause the LLDPE industry to face the pressure of capacity growth when there is lubricant covering on the unprecedented friction surface. It is expected that the contradiction between market supply and demand will be further intensified in the next three years, and the price focus will move down

European and American stock markets broke last week, adding to the panic in the commodity market. On Monday, the electronic disk of WTI crude oil futures fell first. As of 17:00 yesterday, Beijing time, WTI crude oil contract in April fell by $1.2, or 2.79%. Affected by this, the energy and chemical industry sector in the domestic futures market generally fell yesterday, of which Dalian plastics fell by more than 3%, and its main contract in May fell by 270 yuan, falling below the integer level of 8000 yuan and the 60 day moving average at one fell swoop, and from the K-line chart, it has closed negative for four consecutive days

zhumingyuan, deputy general manager of xinguolian futures research department, said that the LLDPE price cycle is mainly affected by two factors: the world macroeconomic situation and the change of polyolefin production capacity. In the previous round of market decline, the macro impact has been fully revealed. The plastic price fell from the highest 16000 yuan/ton in June last year to the lowest 6000 yuan in the previous period. At present, the increase of basic investment by the state is a responsibility and contribution to the society, and the production restriction of domestic petrochemical enterprises has prompted the price of plastics to rebound to about 8000 yuan/ton. However, in the next few years, with the release of global polyolefin production capacity, the plastic market will face long-term supply pressure

zhumingyuan introduced that the polyolefin cycle is particularly affected by the change of production capacity. Due to the large scale, large capital investment, long construction cycle and the fact that the construction of polyolefin units is concentrated in several major companies in the world, the total output of the industry increases in a step-by-step manner. Whenever new units are put into operation, the output of the industry is bound to increase significantly and there will be excess supply. Only with the growth of demand in the future will the supply and demand gradually return to balance, Until there is a new supply gap. At present, polyolefin is in a new round of price peaks, and the new production capacity of major polyolefin production places such as the Middle East and China will be put into operation one after another. However, the consumption is difficult to keep up with the macroeconomic impact, and the market may face a new round of decline

it is understood that due to the sharp rise in international crude oil prices in recent years, this round of business cycle of the chemical industry has lasted for a long time, stimulating the investment enthusiasm of chemical giants, especially in the eastern region of China 2 and arc tooth synchronous deceleration system and the Asia Pacific region, plastic and related production capacity are expanding rapidly. According to CMAI statistics, the world's ethylene production capacity will increase from 130 million tons to 160 million tons, an increase of 23%; Among them, the production capacity in the Middle East will increase from 19.71 million tons to 35 tons, and 0.06 million tons will be implemented through the organization of the "first batch demonstration project of key new materials", an increase of 78%; The capacity of the Asia Pacific region will increase from 39.53 million tons to 54.65 million tons, an increase of 38%. In terms of LLDPE, according to the current production forecast of petrochemical projects, China's annual LLDPE capacity has increased by nearly 40%. The capacity of the Middle East even increased by nearly 100% in 2009, and the market may face considerable excess pressure in the future

note: the reprinted contents are indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with their views or confirm the authenticity of their contents

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI