The hottest new energy vehicle market has a sluggi

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New energy vehicle market: sluggish start

Abstract: the new policy of new energy vehicle subsidies in 2017 was not officially released until December 30, 2016. Car companies that need to make pricing plans in advance were generally on the sidelines before the policy was unclear, and could not start in January this year

in January 2017, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 5400, with a sharp year-on-year decrease of 61% - this figure is far less than the average monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles of BYD in 2016. Among them, BYD sold only 605 new energy passenger vehicles in January this year. In the same period last year, BYD's sales of Tang, a plug-in hybrid model only, reached 4012, and the sales of Qin, another plug-in hybrid model, also reached 517

as for why the sharp decline occurred in January this year, BYD insiders said in an interview yesterday that due to the delay in the new energy subsidy policy, it was in the empty window period of the policy, which caused a lot of trouble to the pricing of new energy vehicles in January this year. For example, BYD's trading volume of new energy commercial vehicles in January this year was only a few, but in fact, there were thousands of intention orders negotiated before. Because the subsidy policy was not issued, the two sides delayed signing the contract, Combined with the Spring Festival holiday and other comprehensive factors, sales fell in January

the new policy of new energy vehicle subsidies in 2017 was not officially released until December 30, 2016. Car companies that need to make pricing plans in advance are generally on the sidelines when the previous policy is not clear, and cannot start in January this year. Cuidongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, said in an interview that without clear subsidies and catalogues, car companies are not able to produce at the moment. In January this year, new energy passenger vehicles showed the characteristics of low production and sales ready to take off. This is also a temporary phenomenon in the process of the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles at the beginning of the year and the review of the announcement. With the release of the first batch of new energy promotion catalogue, new energy vehicles will be on track in February, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 750000 this year

downturn start

according to the new deal, from January 1 this year, the subsidies for pure electric passenger vehicles according to the driving range have been reduced from 25000, 45000 and 55000 to 20000, 36000 and 44000 yuan respectively, and the subsidies for plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles have also been reduced from 30000 to 24000 yuan. At the same time, according to the new deal, the amount of local financial subsidies for single vehicles does not exceed 50% of the central government, and the local financial subsidies of 1:1 with the central government have also become history, with a sharp decline. Comprehensive national subsidy plus local subsidy, the government subsidy for purchasing new energy passenger vehicles will be reduced by up to 44000 yuan in 2017

at the same time, on February 9, the Beijing Municipal Commission of economy and information technology officially issued a document announcing the adjusted new energy vehicle subsidies and other relevant policies. According to the latest national requirements, the financial subsidy standard of Beijing new energy passenger cars will be implemented according to 50% of the central financial subsidy standard, and the two-level financial subsidy will not exceed 60% of the vehicle price. If implemented in this way, the maximum subsidy for purchasing pure electric vehicles in Beijing this year will be reduced by about 40% compared with last year

the increase in car purchase costs is bound to affect consumers' enthusiasm for buying cars. In addition, many governments have not yet introduced this year's new energy vehicle subsidy rules, and enterprises also take a wait-and-see attitude in sales pricing. It is learned from many new energy vehicle 4S stores in Shanghai, including Geely, BYD and SAIC, that due to the current unclear local policies, new energy vehicles are mostly "booked", which also led to the dismal sales of new energy vehicles in January

this is just the beginning. According to the national plan, the subsidy for new energy vehicles in 2018 will be further reduced by 20% on the basis of this year. By 2020, the new energy vehicle industry is expected to bid farewell to the subsidy completely

in this context, is there anyone willing to buy new energy vehicles? According to the current data, although the sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased sharply in the past two years, in fact, statistics show that in 2015, of 379000 new energy vehicles, only 80000 were purchased by private individuals, of which about 60000 were sold to six cities with purchase and traffic restrictions in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Hangzhou, accounting for about 70% of private consumption. Under the background of the withdrawal of subsidies and the decline of policy incentives, how to make new energy vehicles "pleasing" the market has become the most critical issue in front of new energy vehicle enterprises

new car drive market

although it started in a downturn, the industry is not pessimistic about the trend of the new energy vehicle market this year, and it is generally predicted that it will show stable growth. An industry expert said in an interview that the new energy vehicle industry, which has experienced the storm of "deception and compensation", will gradually return to rational growth from the original extensive growth. New energy vehicles have risen to the level of national strategy, and the general trend of the state to encourage the development of new energy will not change. It is estimated that the sales of new energy vehicles this year will be about 750000-800000

market analyst Wu Hui also said in an interview recently that the base of new energy vehicles is small, and there is still a lot of room for development in the future. However, the growth of new energy vehicles has gradually stabilized, and it is no longer as rapid as in the previous two years. It is expected that the sales volume will be about 700000 this year

according to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, the sales of new energy vehicles in 2016 were 507000, an increase of 53% over the same period last year. This is lower than the 2016 sales target of 700000 vehicles originally predicted, which is mainly due to factors such as being cheated to make up for the storm and the delay of the subsidy policy. After the Ministry of industry and information technology announced the punishment of five car companies such as Suzhou jimsy and Suzhou Jinlong last year, it recently pursued the responsibility of seven car companies such as Chongqing Lifan and Zhengzhou Nissan

industry experts said that China's new energy vehicle market has experienced the initial stage of crossing the river by feeling the stones, and it is inevitable that some vehicle enterprises will exploit policy loopholes. After the adjustment period in 2016, the market gradually returns to rationality and order, and truly powerful enterprises will begin to rise in the wind. As for whether the subsidy is too high, it should be divided into two parts. For enterprises that are really used for the positive development of new energy vehicles, the R & D cost is often several billion yuan, and the government subsidy is actually insufficient. However, for some models or car enterprises that have little R & D investment, or even just research and development on the basis of the original fuel vehicles, the subsidy is obviously too high. The subsidies for new energy vehicles have been exploited by some car enterprises. The punishment and crackdown of the state on these enterprises will be conducive to the healthy development of the new energy vehicle market

"at present, domestic enterprises' new energy vehicles have developed rapidly in core technologies such as power batteries and engines, which is likely to overtake in corners, making China from a 'big auto country' to a 'powerful auto country'. Although the national new energy subsidy has declined year by year, the state has increased its support for some major scientific and technological projects, which is different from the previous sunny model of subsidies for new energy vehicles for vehicle manufacturers." Gao Xiaobing said

at the forum of the electric vehicle hundred people's conference held in mid January this year, songqiuling, deputy director of the Department of economic construction of the Ministry of finance, said that the stability and continuity of the subsidy policy were crucial to the stable development of the industry. The formulation of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles adheres to three points: first, the general direction of support remains unchanged. Second, the support period remains unchanged. Third, the overall support remained stable

since electrification is one of the aspects of automobile development, and the general direction of national support for new energy vehicles remains unchanged, many car enterprises have accelerated the pace of developing new energy vehicles. In terms of plug-in hybrid models, BYD has three series of Tang, Qin and yuan. The Tang and Qin series of the enterprise are about to usher in the addition of "upgraded cars". Qin 100 and Tang 100 will be officially launched on the 27th of this month. BAIC, Chang'an, Geely, JAC, Huatai and other independent auto companies have also accelerated the launch of new energy vehicles. Among them, BAIC new energy will launch five new models in 2017, with a sales target of 200000 vehicles. In addition, international auto giants have also published plans for new energy vehicles in China. Volkswagen will launch eight new energy vehicles in China in the future, including Audi a6le Tron, which will be launched in early 2017. This is Audi's first domestic plug-in hybrid model

an industry expert pointed out that at present, there are 176 new energy vehicle manufacturers, and the new "players" with excellent impact strength or ready to enter the market are mainly concentrated in the passenger car market. It is expected that in 2017, more than 60 new models of new energy passenger vehicles will be launched. In the second half of 2017, the new energy passenger vehicle market will usher in an explosion point

industry experts also said that with the decline of subsidies and the participation of foreign brands, China's new energy vehicle industry will undergo major changes. On the one hand, the release of the production qualification of new energy vehicles, and the Internet automobile enterprises come to subvert the future, which will promote the development of the electric vehicle market to a certain extent. On the other hand, with the decline of subsidies, foreign brands will gradually accelerate the competition in China's new energy market, and the competition pattern in the field of electric passenger vehicles is expected to be reshaped

reduce costs

new cars will promote the growth of the new energy vehicle market. However, it is still difficult for new energy vehicle enterprises to avoid the impact of the adjustment of new energy subsidy policies. The top priority is to digest the cost rise caused by the decline of subsidies as soon as possible

not only did the subsidy decline, the new deal raised the threshold of the recommended model catalogue and dynamically adjusted it, specifically raising the threshold of financial subsidy access in terms of vehicle energy consumption, driving range, battery performance, safety requirements and other aspects, which forced new energy vehicle manufacturers to further improve their internal skills, improve technology and reduce costs

"in the long run, the competitors of electric vehicles are not local electric vehicle enterprises, nor multinational companies, but traditional fuel vehicles." Zeng Yuqun, the founder of Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., delivered a speech at the electric vehicle 100 people's meeting in January this year, saying that if there is no way to compete with fuel vehicles, there will be no possibility of full marketization of electric vehicles after the withdrawal of subsidies. Wang Xiaoqiu, general manager of SAIC passenger cars, also stated this view in an interview earlier. Zeng Yuqun previously revealed that when he communicated with European, American and Japanese auto giants, the latter proposed the goal that by 2020, the price of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles would be completely flat without subsidies. On this premise, electric vehicles could achieve 50% replacement of fuel vehicles

like traditional vehicles, the main cost of new energy vehicles comes from three core components: batteries, motors and electronic control systems, of which the cost of battery systems accounts for 30% - 50% of the total. It is understood that the energy and industrial planning departments of major economies such as the United States, Japan and the European Union have long formulated relevant planning routes, especially involving the reduction of battery costs. For example, according to the route plan released by the Ministry of economy, industry and industry of Japan in 2013, the battery cost will be reduced to 20000 yen/kw · H (about $170/wh) around 2020. Others such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Department of energy also predict that the battery cost will be less than $200/kw · h around 2020. According to the "2025 manufacturing plan" released by the Ministry of industry and information technology last year, by that time, the cost of power batteries will reach 0.8 yuan/kw · H (about $116/kw · h). According to Ouyang Minggao, executive vice president of the 100 people's Association of electric vehicles in China, if the battery cost is reduced to 30000 yuan for the battery system of a car with a 350km endurance, electric vehicles will have a cost advantage that rivals fuel vehicles

however, including power batteries and vehicle enterprises, the 4-point zigzag testing machine of ceramic membrane meets the standard: in the view of enterprise insiders, at present, the material cost is high

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